ID-SA Asia Pacific Updated 2026-08-20

Indonesia (North Sulawesi Arc) Geothermal Screening

Geothermal screening assessment identifies 39.8% prospective land reaching 185°C by 5.5 km depth in Indonesia (North Sulawesi Arc).

Key Geothermal Metrics

Land Reaching 185°C by 5.5 km High Potential
39.8%

Primary baseline screening criterion

Shallowest Depth to 200°C Shallow
3.5 km

Minimum drill depth for high enthalpy

Peak Temperature at 5 km Depth Superhot
324.3 °C

Maximum modeled temperature

Typical Geothermal Gradient Volcanic / Rift
50.4 °C/km

Average to 5 km depth (15°C surface)

Grid Connectable Prospective Area High Accessibility
82.4%

Hot territory within 50 km transmission

Stored Heat In-Place (3–7 km) 1 ZJ = 10²¹ Joules
104.8 ZJ

Thermal volume in place (>80°C baseline)

Depth vs. Temperature Matrix (% Land Area)

Proportion of national territory exceeding target isotherm at specified depth

0.1° Inversion Grid
Isotherm 3.0 km 4.0 km 5.0 km 6.0 km 7.0 km 8.0 km
150°C 18.8% 34.9% 53.6% 77.6% 99% 100%
175°C 11.3% 28.8% 44.5% 57.4% 92.4% 100%
200°C 14.1% 24.6% 37.9% 59.4% 80.1% 80.1%
225°C 9.1% 23.2% 34.8% 51.8% 64.2% 79.6%
250°C 7.4% 17.1% 28.9% 35.9% 51.7% 57.7%

4-Stage Geothermal Resource & Infrastructure Funnel

Progressive screening from gross national territory down to grid-connected & populated prospective zones

1 Whole country
174 600 km² 100%
2 Reaches 185°C by 5.5 km
69 491 km² 39.8%
3 ...and within 50 km transmission
57 261 km² 32.8%
4 ...and within 100 km town
51 594 km² 29.8%

Geological Setting & Subsurface Parameters

Lithology, basement thickness, stress and thermal boundary constraints

Median Depth to 200°C Isotherm 5.9 km
Best 10th Percentile Depth to 200°C 4.6 km
Median Temperature at 5 km Depth 227.2 °C
Best 10th Percentile Temp at 5 km 281.8 °C
Median Sediment Thickness 0.6 km
Sediment / Hard-Rock Well Share 26.9%
Territory Under 1 km Sediment Cover 76.5%
Lithostatic Pressure at 5 km Depth 139.9 MPa
Moho Crustal Discontinuity Depth 36.6 km
Thermal Lithosphere Thickness 82.5 km
Curie Temperature Isotherm Depth 17.5 km
Model Temperature Spread Uncertainty (200°C) ±1.5 km

Transmission Grid & Demand Colocation

Infrastructure interconnectivity and urban power demand proximity

High-Voltage Transmission Network Length 12 772 km
Land Area Within 25 km of Grid 72%
Land Area Within 50 km of Grid 82.4%
Land Area Within 100 km of Grid 89.5%
Average Proximity to Nearest Substation / Line 18.7 km
Urban Centers (>10,000 Population) 58
Total Urban Population 18 M
Prospective Resource Colocated Near Demand (>1M Pop) 41.3%

Target Sensitivity & Deep EGS Upside

Sensitivity of prospective resource area to adjusted depth and temperature thresholds

150°C Baseline at 5.5 km 63.7% of national territory reaches 150°C at 5.5 km depth
185°C Baseline at 7.5 km 71.6% of national territory reaches 185°C at 7.5 km depth

Global Peer Benchmarking (vs. 278 Assessed Jurisdictions)

Relative ranking distribution of Indonesia (North Sulawesi Arc) across 11 standardized geothermal indicators

Indonesia (North Sulawesi Arc) Rank Global Peer Spread
Shallowest 200°C depth
3.5 km Middle 50%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 64th percentile
Peak temp at 5 km
324.3 °C Top 10%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 90th percentile
Prospective land area (>185°C at 5.5 km)
39.8% Middle 50%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 66th percentile
Stored heat in-place (3-7 km)
104.8 ZJ Middle 50%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 63th percentile
Typical geothermal gradient
50.4 °C/km Middle 50%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 72th percentile
Grid proximity (<50 km)
82.4% Top 25%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 82th percentile
Thin sediment coverage (<1 km)
76.5% Top 25%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 76th percentile
Curie isotherm depth
17.5 km Middle 50%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 62th percentile
Moho crustal thickness
36.6 km Lower 50%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 34th percentile
Model temperature uncertainty spread
±0.8 km Middle 50%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 64th percentile
Urban demand colocation
34.8% Top 25%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 81th percentile
Asset-Level 3D Simulation Available

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Analytical Geothermal Assessment & Discussion: Indonesia (North Sulawesi Arc)

Subsurface thermal interpretation, model uncertainty, infrastructure colocation, and resource quality analysis

Resource Overview

Geothermal assessment for Indonesia (North Sulawesi Arc) indicates volcanic_arc geological controls governing subsurface heat transport, yielding 39.8% of land area reaching the baseline target of 185°C at 5.5 km depth.

Uncertainty & Model Variance

Thermal inversion across Indonesia (North Sulawesi Arc) shows consistent model convergence with constrained standard deviations across deep crustal layers.

Grid & Infrastructure Colocation

National electrical transmission coverage positions approximately 82.4% of prospective geothermal ground within 50 km of existing high-voltage corridors.

Geological & Basement Setting

Subsurface lithology is characterized by volcanic arc dynamics with median sediment thickness of 0.6 km and crustal thickness of 36.6 km.

Stored Heat Volume

Accessible thermal energy in place between 3 km and 7 km depth above 80°C totals 104.8 Zettajoules (ZJ).

Peer Comparison

Benchmarked against 237 global assessment jurisdictions, Indonesia (North Sulawesi Arc) demonstrates competitive positioning across heat flow, infrastructure, and basement competence indicators.

Target Sensitivity Analysis

Screening at 150°C baseline at 5.5 km increases prospective territory, demonstrating substantial deep EGS resource headroom.

Screening Methodology, Parameters & Limitations

This screening assessment for Indonesia (North Sulawesi Arc) is generated from Geothermal Radar Data Pack 2026.1 utilizing global 0.1° hex-grid thermal inversion across 1 940 model cells (land area: 174 600 km²). Baseline prospective criterion is defined as reaching 185°C at or above 5.5 km depth with surface temperature normalized to 15°C.

  • Screening estimates represent regional-scale heat in place and do not replace localized 3D seismic or exploratory drilling.
  • Model uncertainties expand in regions with sparse deep boreholes and complex thrust fault kinematics.
  • Grid proximity indicators reflect line-of-sight distance to high-voltage transmission and do not account for local substation thermal capacity.
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