CN Asia Pacific Updated 2026-08-20

China Geothermal Screening

Geothermal screening assessment identifies 6.1% prospective land reaching 185°C by 5.5 km depth in China.

Key Geothermal Metrics

Land Reaching 185°C by 5.5 km Low Prospect
6.1%

Primary baseline screening criterion

Shallowest Depth to 200°C Deep Target
4.9 km

Minimum drill depth for high enthalpy

Peak Temperature at 5 km Depth Commercial EGS
206.5 °C

Maximum modeled temperature

Typical Geothermal Gradient Elevated
33 °C/km

Average to 5 km depth (15°C surface)

Grid Connectable Prospective Area High Accessibility
80.4%

Hot territory within 50 km transmission

Stored Heat In-Place (3–7 km) 1 ZJ = 10²¹ Joules
1931.2 ZJ

Thermal volume in place (>80°C baseline)

Depth vs. Temperature Matrix (% Land Area)

Proportion of national territory exceeding target isotherm at specified depth

0.1° Inversion Grid
Isotherm 3.0 km 4.0 km 5.0 km 6.0 km 7.0 km 8.0 km
150°C 1.4% 2.6% 3.8% 5.7% 7.5% 7.5%
175°C 0.8% 1.9% 3.1% 4.5% 5.7% 6.8%
200°C 0.8% 1.5% 2% 2.8% 3.7% 4.2%
225°C 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 1.4% 2.1% 2.5%
250°C 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5%

4-Stage Geothermal Resource & Infrastructure Funnel

Progressive screening from gross national territory down to grid-connected & populated prospective zones

1 Whole country
9 596 961 km² 100%
2 Reaches 185°C by 5.5 km
585 415 km² 6.1%
3 ...and within 50 km transmission
470 674 km² 4.9%
4 ...and within 100 km town
408 677 km² 4.4%

Geological Setting & Subsurface Parameters

Lithology, basement thickness, stress and thermal boundary constraints

Median Depth to 200°C Isotherm 8 km
Best 10th Percentile Depth to 200°C 5.5 km
Median Temperature at 5 km Depth 152.3 °C
Best 10th Percentile Temp at 5 km 181.2 °C
Median Sediment Thickness 3.7 km
Sediment / Hard-Rock Well Share 38.6%
Territory Under 1 km Sediment Cover 29.8%
Lithostatic Pressure at 5 km Depth 133.4 MPa
Moho Crustal Discontinuity Depth 32.9 km
Thermal Lithosphere Thickness 78.9 km
Curie Temperature Isotherm Depth 26.8 km
Model Temperature Spread Uncertainty (200°C) ±1 km

Transmission Grid & Demand Colocation

Infrastructure interconnectivity and urban power demand proximity

High-Voltage Transmission Network Length 79 121 km
Land Area Within 25 km of Grid 61.8%
Land Area Within 50 km of Grid 80.4%
Land Area Within 100 km of Grid 93.4%
Average Proximity to Nearest Substation / Line 8.3 km
Urban Centers (>10,000 Population) 1204
Total Urban Population 138 M
Prospective Resource Colocated Near Demand (>1M Pop) 43.8%

Target Sensitivity & Deep EGS Upside

Sensitivity of prospective resource area to adjusted depth and temperature thresholds

150°C Baseline at 5.5 km 9.8% of national territory reaches 150°C at 5.5 km depth
185°C Baseline at 7.5 km 11% of national territory reaches 185°C at 7.5 km depth

Global Peer Benchmarking (vs. 278 Assessed Jurisdictions)

Relative ranking distribution of China across 11 standardized geothermal indicators

China Rank Global Peer Spread
Shallowest 200°C depth
4.9 km Lower 50%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 44th percentile
Peak temp at 5 km
206.5 °C Lower 50%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 43th percentile
Prospective land area (>185°C at 5.5 km)
6.1% Lower 25%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 10th percentile
Stored heat in-place (3-7 km)
1931.2 ZJ Top 10%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 99th percentile
Typical geothermal gradient
33 °C/km Lower 50%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 47th percentile
Grid proximity (<50 km)
80.4% Top 25%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 80th percentile
Thin sediment coverage (<1 km)
29.8% Lower 50%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 30th percentile
Curie isotherm depth
26.8 km Lower 50%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 41th percentile
Moho crustal thickness
32.9 km Lower 50%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 41th percentile
Model temperature uncertainty spread
±1.7 km Middle 50%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 46th percentile
Urban demand colocation
36.2% Top 25%
P0 (Lowest) P50 (Median) P100 (Highest) • 82th percentile
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Analytical Geothermal Assessment & Discussion: China

Subsurface thermal interpretation, model uncertainty, infrastructure colocation, and resource quality analysis

Resource Overview

Geothermal assessment for China indicates sedimentary_rift geological controls governing subsurface heat transport, yielding 6.1% of land area reaching the baseline target of 185°C at 5.5 km depth.

Uncertainty & Model Variance

Thermal inversion across China shows consistent model convergence with constrained standard deviations across deep crustal layers.

Grid & Infrastructure Colocation

National electrical transmission coverage positions approximately 80.4% of prospective geothermal ground within 50 km of existing high-voltage corridors.

Geological & Basement Setting

Subsurface lithology is characterized by sedimentary rift dynamics with median sediment thickness of 3.7 km and crustal thickness of 32.9 km.

Stored Heat Volume

Accessible thermal energy in place between 3 km and 7 km depth above 80°C totals 1931.2 Zettajoules (ZJ).

Peer Comparison

Benchmarked against 237 global assessment jurisdictions, China demonstrates competitive positioning across heat flow, infrastructure, and basement competence indicators.

Target Sensitivity Analysis

Screening at 150°C baseline at 5.5 km increases prospective territory, demonstrating substantial deep EGS resource headroom.

Screening Methodology, Parameters & Limitations

This screening assessment for China is generated from Geothermal Radar Data Pack 2026.1 utilizing global 0.1° hex-grid thermal inversion across 106 633 model cells (land area: 9 596 961 km²). Baseline prospective criterion is defined as reaching 185°C at or above 5.5 km depth with surface temperature normalized to 15°C.

  • Screening estimates represent regional-scale heat in place and do not replace localized 3D seismic or exploratory drilling.
  • Model uncertainties expand in regions with sparse deep boreholes and complex thrust fault kinematics.
  • Grid proximity indicators reflect line-of-sight distance to high-voltage transmission and do not account for local substation thermal capacity.
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